Way Early 2014 Senate Scores

Since I won’t even be officially collecting polls for the 2014 Senate races until 2014 – so 10 more months – I thought I would provide what I think are generally the scores for all the Senate seats that are going to be up in 2014. This right now is based on who is running, some extremely early polling, and of course the state that is involved. So without further ado, here are my way early 2014 Senate scores:

Toss Up

  • Georgia
  • Louisiana
  • South Dakota

Leans Democratic

  • Alaska
  • Arkansas
  • Colorado
  • Hawaii
  • Illinois
  • Iowa
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Montana
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • North Carolina

Leans Republican

  • Kentucky
  • Maine
  • West Virginia

Safe Democratic

  • Delaware
  • Massachusetts
  • New Mexico
  • Oregon
  • Rhode Island
  • Virginia

Safe Republican

  • Alabama
  • Idaho
  • Kansas
  • Mississippi
  • Nebraska
  • Oklahoma
  • South Carolina 1
  • South Carolina 2
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Wyoming

Notes

The following are notes about these ratings solely based on who has – or hasn’t – declared to run yet

  • Iowa: with Steve King almost certainly going to be the Republican nominee, I moved this state from toss-up to lean Dem from my original ratings I made about a week ago on twitter
  • Maine: “lean Republican” is pretty much an average of possible scenarios in that state. If Susan Collins decides to run again and survives any primary attempt, Maine would be Safe Republican. If either Susan Collins declines to run or she loses in a primary, Maine would switch to Toss Up or Lean Democratic
  • Michigan: If Carl Levin decides to run for another term, Michigan would move to Safe Democratic
  • South Dakota: If Tim Johnson declines to run for another term, South Dakota would move to Lean Republican

How did the Polls do: Overall Pollster Ratings

This is the final in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on a state-by-state basis among the 10 closest battleground states, how they did on the national popular vote, and how they did overall as pollsters.

Today we look at overall pollster ratings for all states nationwide. This review looks at all pollsters who conducted at least 5 polls in roughly the final 2 weeks (they had a poll in the field from Oct. 20 and on), as well as how I did in my averages nationwide.

The “average miss” is the average miss from the final margin in the state. “Median miss” is the median (in the middle) miss among all polls conducted. Partisan miss is the average miss toward one candidate or the other. The pollster rating is the average miss added to the partisan miss.

Pollster # of Polls Avg. Miss Median Miss Partisan Miss Pollster Rating
Mellman Group 5 1.7% 1.1% R+0.5% 2.2
Grove Insights 9 2.0% 2.4% R+0.6% 2.6
Angus Reid 5 1.4% 0.9% R+1.3% 2.7
SurveyUSA 11 2.2% 2.4% R+0.6% 2.8
WeAskAmerica 9 2.7% 2.0% R+0.5% 3.2
Five Thirty Eight 51 3.1% 2.5% R+0.6% 3.7
Pharos Research 6 2.5% 2.7% O+1.3% 3.8
YouGov 10 2.4% 2.6% R+1.9% 4.3
PPP 21 3.0% 2.3% R+1.5% 4.5
Electoral-Vote.us 45 3.7% 3.2% R+1.2% 4.9
NBC/Marist 8 3.0% 3.3% R+1.9% 4.9
Mason-Dixon 6 4.6% 4.2% R+0.5% 5.1
Gravis Marketing 9 2.6% 2.0% R+2.6% 5.2
Pulse Opinion Research 5 3.0% 2.9% R+3.0% 6.0
Rasmussen 17 4.4% 4.0% R+3.7% 8.1
American Research Group 5 4.9% 5.6% R+4.9% 9.8

How did the Polls do: National Popular Vote

This is the next in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on a state-by-state basis among the 10 closest battleground states, how they did on the national popular vote, and how they did overall as pollsters.

Today we look at how pollsters did compared to the national popular vote.

This review looks at the last poll conducted by each pollster within roughly the final two weeks of the campaign (polls that were in the field on October 20th or later). For the national popular vote, there were 27 polls.

The “margin miss” is how far off the poll was from the final margin. The “absolute miss” is how far off the poll was from the final percentages for each of the two candidates.

Pollster Poll Dates Margin Miss Absolute Miss
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Nov. 1-4 O+0.1% 4.3%
RAND Nov. 5 R+0.6% 2.6%
Angus Reid Nov. 1-3 R+0.9% 0.9%
ABC/Washington Post Nov. 1-4 R+0.9% 1.3%
Pew Research Oct. 31 – Nov. 3 R+0.9% 1.3%
Democracy Crops Oct. 18-21 R+0.9% 3.3%
High Point University Oct. 22-30 R+0.9% 9.3%
Princeton Survey Oct. 25-28 O+1.1% 3.3%
Pharos Research Oct. 19-21 R+1.6% 1.6%
PPP Nov. 1-4 R+1.9% 1.9%
YouGov Oct. 31 – Nov. 3 R+1.9% 3.3%
Reuters/Ipsos Nov. 1-5 R+1.9% 4.3%
IBD/TIPP Nov. 3-5 R+2.3% 2.3%
CBS/New York Times Oct. 25-28 R+2.9% 3.3%
NBC/Wall Street Journal Nov. 1-3 R+2.9% 3.3%
Purple Strategies Oct. 31 – Nov. 1 R+2.9% 5.3%
American Research Group Nov. 2-4 R+3.9% 3.9%
CNN Nov. 2-4 R+3.9% 3.9%
CVOTER International Oct. 25-31 R+3.9% 3.9%
Gravis Marketing Nov. 3-5 R+3.9% 3.9%
Monmouth/SurveyUSA Nov. 1-4 R+3.9% 3.9%
Politico/GWU Nov. 4-5 R+3.9% 4.3%
Fox News Oct. 28-30 R+3.9% 6.3%
Gallup Nov. 1-4 R+4.9% 4.9%
NPR Oct. 23-25 R+4.9% 4.9%
Rasmussen Nov. 3-5 R+4.9% 4.9%
Zogby Interactive Nov. 2-4 R+5.9% 5.9%
AP/GfK Oct. 19-23 R+5.9% 6.3%

Some final 2012 wrap up, archiving, and 2013 and 2014

It’s been a little while since I posted anything, so I thought I would give a little update. I still have two posts left for “How the polls did” series that I have yet to post. I mean to post them in December and never got around to it, so I’ll try to post them early next week.

I’ve also archived all of the 2012 Presidential election information. All the polls, charts, etc. are all up the Election 2012 archive page.

Also, I definitely plan on tracking Senate/Governor races in 2014, and I want to try to track the VA-Gov, NJ-Gov, and MA-Sen races in 2013, though part of that will depend on if I can finalize things like tweaking my algorithm and the like finished by then. I should be able to do that for the governor races. I’ll see about the Senate race.

I started work on trying to shoehorn races other than the Presidential race into my current system (though I ended up not using those updates in 2012), but I think it may be easier to just rebuild the whole thing from scratch. I learned things from 2008 and I learned things from 2012 on how to do things better, and instead of trying to work it into a framework which works, but isn’t all that great, it’s just going to be better if I knock it down and start from the ground up.

Another things I would like to do EVENTUALLY is to make an app, but that will obviously take a backseat to my rebuilding the backend to my system.

In any case, I’ll probably write some posts discussing the 2013 and 2014 races, even if I’m not doing any actual number crunching on them yet over the next few months.

How did the Polls do: Swing State Roundup

This is the next in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on election day. Today, I look at swing states as a group, reviewing how pollsters did, on average, if they polled 3 or more swing states.

I’ll review both the average miss and the partisan index, and give each pollster a final score by adding the two numbers together:

Pollster States Polled Median Miss Avg. Miss Partisan Index Pollster Rating Record
Angus Reid FL, OH, PA, WI 0.5% 0.6% R+0.6% 1.2 3-0-1
Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT FL, OH, VA 1.9% 1.3% O+0.1% 1.4 3-0
Mellman Group FL, IA, NV, OH, VA 1.1% 1.7% R+0.5% 2.2 5-0
CNN CO, FL, OH 1.9% 1.8% R+1.8% 3.5 2-1
Grove Insights CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, WI 1.7% 1.9% R+0.4% 2.4 7-1
PPP All 1.9% 1.9% R+0.9% 2.8 10-0
Lake Research CO, NH, OH 1.0% 2.0% R+2.0% 4.0 3-0
WeAskAmerica CO, FL, IA, OH, VA, WI 1.9% 2.1% R+1.7% 3.8 5-1
Electoral-vote.us All 2.7% 2.2% R+2.2% 4.4 9-1
Reuters/Ipsos CO, FL, OH, VA 1.9% 2.3% R+1.8% 4.1 3-1
YouGov CO, FL, IA, NV, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI 2.6% 2.4% R+1.8% 4.2 8-1
SurveyUSA FL, CO, NV, NC, OH 2.7% 2.4% R+1.6% 4.0 4-0-1
Gravis Marketing FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA 2.4% 2.9% R+2.9% 5.8 6-0-2
NBC/Marist CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI 3.0% 3.0% R+1.9% 4.9 7-0-1
Pulse Opinion Research FL, OH, PA, VA, WI 2.9% 3.0% R+3.0% 6.0 4-1
Zogby FL, OH, VA 4.1% 3.1% O+2.6% 5.7 3-0
Purple Strategies CO, OH, VA 3.9% 3.1% R+3.1% 6.2 2-0-1
CallFire CO, IA, NV 2.8% 3.3% R+3.3% 6.6 3-0
Rasmussen All 4.4% 4.7% R+4.7% 9.4 4-4-2
ARG CO, IA, NV, NH, OH 5.6% 4.9% R+4.9% 9.8 2-2-1
Wenzel Strategies OH, VA, WI 6.0% 5.6% R+5.6% 11.2 1-2