Race Stabilization – No change in EV count for nearly 2 weeks

The race seems to have gotten to a point where it has stabilized for a bit. The electoral college count hasn’t changed since May 16th, which will be 2 weeks tomorrow. It is stuck stubbornly at Obama 246, Romney 181, Too Close to Call 111. The county with “leaners” has fluctuated some, but Obama has over 300 electoral votes in that count.

To boot, all 303 of Obama’s electoral votes – even the “lean” ones, are in states where he leads by a margin of at least 4%. That’s not too bad of a spot to be in right now. Sure, that can change, but barring a national crisis or a dramatic change in the economy, it’s hard to see the race changing much until the late summer when we get close to Romney choosing his running mate and the national conventions.

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Signs of Obama Weakening in Recent Polls

Recent polling definitely seem to suggest a slight shift away from Obama in places not in the Northeast recently.

In North Carolina, Rasmussen shows Romney up 8% (which I don’t believe), but PPP released a show showing Obama up 1%, but with a poll where Democrats had a 14% party ID advantage. They only had an 11% advantage in 2008 and I would expect it to be less this year, so the chances that Obama is actually leading in North Carolina is slim. If I had to make a guess, I’d probably say Romney leads by between 1 or 2% in North Carolina right now.

Next is Wisconsin, which after having 3 straight polls from late March and April showing Obama ahead by at least 9, now has had 3 straight polls showing Obama ahead by less than 5, putting that state into the “Too Close to Call” category.

In Oregon, a Survey USA poll has put the margin in that state at 4%, though there is no 2nd poll to confirm that the race is that close there.

There is some good news for Obama in recent polling, though. Northeastern states, such as New Jersey and New Hampshire are showing that they are solidifying around Obama, while Michigan had another poll showing that the margin there is still between about 5 and 6%.

One has to see if this is some sort of short-term reaction to Obama’s gay marriage announcement or if this strengthening is due to Romney not having solidified his base yet in some areas and that this trend will stop after another week or two.  However, if any more states become toss ups, especially Michigan or Pennsylvania, then Obama has real reason to worry that people see Romney, and they at least don’t dislike him enough to not vote for him over Obama.

New Polls in Virginia and North Carolina show close races

Two new polls today – one by PPP in Virginia and another by SurveyUSA in North Carolina – continue to show both of those states are very competitive and, for the moment anyway, lean Obama.

Both states remain Too Close to Call on the map and both states have very similar margins, with Obama leading by 3.4% in Virginia and by 3.7% in North Carolina. These are also the two largest leads in the seven current “Too Close to Call” states on the map. Both of these states are almost certainly “must win” states for Romney if he wants to defeat Obama in November.