There’s been some discussion about poll comparisons between Rasmussen and PPP. They’re both alike in a way: they’re both automated polls which don’t call cell phones and which are run by someone who doesn’t necessarily hide their political leanings.
However, while PPP has gotten somewhat of a reputation for being accurate despite their leanings, Rasmussen has had trouble shaking the view that they lean excessively in favor of GOP candidates.
I’ve definitely noticed this Rasmussen tendency in my poll tracking so far, with them having numbers far outside the norm in states like Wisconsin and North Carolina. However, PPP has gotten some criticism in 2012 for having the same problem, except going the other way. So I decided to do a comparison.
Supporters of President Obama had one thing they could cling to despite close or tied nationwide polling: Obama’s apparent superior position in the Electoral College.
However, this position has now been severely impacted and is under threat of going away completely.
In the past month, Obama has dropped from having an excellent 263 “strong” or “weak” electoral votes to only having 228 Electoral Votes, which is alarmingly low of an incumbent President looking for re-election.
Ohio and Florida now both are in the lean Romney category, making the Electoral College count with leaners Obama 295 Romney 243 – still a win for Obama assuming he wins every state he leads in, but it’s the best total by far for Romney so far. If you give Romney Missouri, the total falls to Obama 285 Romney 253. You give Romney the next two lowest hanging fruits – Colorado and Iowa – whose averages are now within 2%, and you get Obama 270 Romney 268.
I suppose the one plus for Obama is that Romney still has to cut into Obama’s lead by 3% across the board to still get enough Electoral Votes to win (next on the list is Nevada and Virginia, where Obama has leads of 3%), but Obama’s position is much more precarious now.
Two weeks ago, and especially a month ago, it would have taken a near miracle for Romney to have won the election had it been held then. Now, it wouldn’t take very much for Romney to win with a 287-251 total.
We saw some tightening a month or so ago, but then it stalled for a couple of weeks. Now the tightening appears to be happening again. If we have another round of tightening later, Obama may soon find himself trailing in the Electoral College as well as in the polls.