October 29: State of the Race

Welcome to the October 29th state of the race, the next to last status before the end of the election. In this edition we will compare what the race for president looks like compared to last Monday, October 22nd. For the most part, the race definitely seems to have stabilized once again with a very narrow Obama advantage.

I’ll evaluate the race using five different metrics, with a slight change to one:

  • Current state of the race with TCtC states
  • Current state of the race with leaners
  • Obama EV total in states where he has 50% in the average
  • Obama EV total in states where he has 48% in the average
  • Electoral Vote total assuming a 2:1 undecided swing to Romney

State of the Race: Electoral Count including Too Close to Call

Obama: 237 (NC)
Romney: 191 (+11)
TCtC: 110 (-11)

Obama finally stopped dropping in this count, leveling of at 237 electoral votes for now. Romney gained back Arizona, which he probably really shouldn’t have lot in the first place.

State of the Race: Electoral Count including leaners

Obama: 303 (NC)
Romney: 235 (NC)

There is no change in the count, and little change in how close states are flipping. Both Colorado and Florida still have margins of under 1% and are the closest states for Obama and Romney respectively.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming Obama needs 50% in the average

Romney: 334 (-10)
Obama: 204 (+10)

Once again Obama drops in the metric showing how many states he has 50% in the average in. I’m not entirely sure what the changes were in this count, but Obama improves by 10 electoral votes from last week. This seems like it would be a fairly unrealistic scenario, but we’ll see.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming Obama needs 48% in the average and leads

Obama: 287 (-7)
Romney: 251 (+7)

This week, Oregon slipped under the 48% mark, though it’s sitting at 47.9% (along with Colorado and Florida). However, Obama’s margin in Oregon is about 6% right now, so he’s probably not in as bad of shape there as that percentage suggests.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming undecideds break 2-to-1 toward Romney

Obama: 281 (NC)
Romney: 257 (NC)

For the second straight week, there is no change in this count, which is a good sign for Obama that things have leveled out.

In this scenario, Romney would still win Virginia by 0.4% (vs. 0.5% last week), Colorado by 0.9% (vs. 1.4% last week), and Florida by 1.9% (vs. 2.5% last week). Obama would win Ohio by 0.4% (vs. 0.2% last week), Iowa by 0.9% (vs. 0.8% last week), Nevada by 1.8% (vs. 1.3% last week), New Hampshire by 0.8% (vs. 1.5% last week), and Wisconsin by 2.2% (vs. 2.7% last week).

Three weeks ago, Romney needed an 88-12 split in undecideds to win. Two weeks ago that dropped to 80-20. Last week that dropped to only 69-31. This week that jumped just slightly to a 71-29 split.

Polling Update: October 20 – 26

Between October 20 and October 26, there were 67 polls from 22 states, surveying 48,799 people.

Arkansas

University of Arkansas: Romney 58.0, Obama 31.0; 642 LV, Oct. 9-14

Notes: Remember when Clinton won Arkansas twice?

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 35.0% 31.4% -3.6%
Romney 56.0% 57.8% +1.8%
Margin R+-21.0% R+-26.4% R+5.4%

Arizona

Rasmussen: Romney 52.0, Obama 44.0; 500 LV, Oct. 21

Notes: Demographics haven’t put Arizona in play quite yet

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 43.8% 43.9% +0.1%
Romney 47.6% 49.7% +2.1%
Margin R+-3.8% R+-5.8% R+2%

Colorado

Rasmussen: Romney 50.0, Obama 46.0; 500 LV, Oct. 21
NBC/Marist: Obama 48.0, Romney 48.0; 1128 LV, Oct. 23-24
Keating Research: Obama 48.0, Romney 45.0; 502 LV, Oct. 23-24
PPP: Obama 51.0, Romney 47.0; 904 LV, Oct. 23-25
PurplePoll: Obama 47.0, Romney 46.0; 600 LV, Oct. 23-25

Notes: Five polls and no change suggests things have leveled off in Colorado with a very slight Obama lead in the polls.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 48.0% 48.1% +0.1%
Romney 47.0% 47.1% +0.1%
Margin O+1.0% O+1% Even Even

Connecticut

Mason-Dixon: Obama 49.0, Romney 42.0; 625 LV, Oct. 15-17
SurveyUSA: Obama 53.0, Romney 40.0; 575 LV, Oct. 19-21
Rasmussen: Obama 52.0, Romney 45.0; 500 LV, Oct. 21
Quinnipiac: Obama 55.0, Romney 41.0; 1412 LV, Oct. 19-22

Notes: No suspense in Connecticut.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 52.4% 52.4% Even
Romney 40.5% 41.3% +0.8%
Margin O+11.9% O+11.1% O-0.8%

Florida

PPP: Romney 48.0, Obama 47.0; 800 LV, Oct. 17-18
SurveyUSA: Obama 47.0, Romney 46.0; 600 LV, Oct. 17-18
Fox News: Romney 48.0, Obama 45.0; 1130 LV, Oct. 17-18
CNN/ORC: Romney 49.0, Obama 48.0; 681 LV, Oct. 17-18
Gravis Marketing: Romney 50.0, Obama 49.0; 1182 LV, Oct. 24
Rasmussen: Romney 50.0, Obama 48.0; 750 LV, Oct. 25

Notes: Six polls and Florida more or less stays the same at around a 1% Romney lead.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 47.5% 47.5% Even
Romney 48.3% 48.5% +0.2%
Margin R+-0.8% R+-1% R+0.2%

Iowa

PPP: Obama 49.0, Romney 48.0; 660 LV, Oct. 18-19
Rasmussen: Obama 48.0, Romney 48.0; 500 LV, Oct. 21
PPP: Obama 49.0, Romney 47.0; 600 LV, Oct. 23-24
Gravis Marketing: Obama 50.0, Romney 46.0; 517 LV, Oct. 24

Notes: I think most of this drop is caused by the Rasmussen tie and the fact than an O+8 poll continues to age.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 49.1% 49.0% -0.1%
Romney 45.8% 46.6% +0.8%
Margin O+3.3% O+2.4% O-0.9%

Massachusetts

MassINC: Obama 56.0, Romney 36.0; 516 LV, Oct. 21-22

Notes: Yawn.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 56.7% 56.5% -0.2%
Romney 37.3% 36.9% -0.4%
Margin O+19.4% O+19.6% O+0.2%

Minnesota

Rasmussen: Obama 51.0, Romney 46.0; 500 LV, Oct. 21

Notes: I tend to doubt that Minnesota is this close, but we’ll see.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 51.0% 50.9% -0.1%
Romney 41.2% 43.2% +2%
Margin O+9.8% O+7.7% O-2.1%

Missouri

PPP: Romney 52.0, Obama 46.0; 582 LV, Oct. 19-21

Notes: Missouri shouldn’t give us much suspense on election night.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 44.0% 44.7% +0.7%
Romney 51.6% 51.8% +0.2%
Margin R+-7.6% R+-7.1% R-0.5%

North Carolina

National Research: Romney 48.0, Obama 47.0; 600 LV, Oct. 20-21
Gravis Marketing: Romney 53.0, Obama 45.0; 1723 LV, Oct. 24
PPP: Obama 48.0, Romney 48.0; 880 LV, Oct. 23-25

Notes: Excepting the Gravis poll, North Carolina still looks a lot closer than it probably should given the national race.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 46.3% 46.5% +0.2%
Romney 48.9% 49.3% +0.4%
Margin R+-2.6% R+-2.8% R+0.2%

North Dakota

Forum Communications: Romney 57.0, Obama 32.0; 500 LV, Oct. 12-15
Rasmussen: Romney 54.0, Obama 40.0; 600 LV, Oct. 17-18

Notes: There will be no toying with North Dakota this time.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 39.9% 36.8% -3.1%
Romney 53.9% 55.2% +1.3%
Margin R+-14.0% R+-18.4% R+4.4%

New Hampshire

University of New Hampshire: Obama 51.0, Romney 42.0; 773 LV, Oct. 17-21
Lake Research: Obama 48.0, Romney 45.0; 400 LV, Oct. 18-22
Rasmussen: Romney 50.0, Obama 48.0; 500 LV, Oct. 23
New England College: Obama 49.0, Romney 46.0; 571 LV, Oct. 23-25

Notes: The UNH poll and Rasmussen polls look like outliers on the opposite side of the spectrum, with two O+3 polls in the middle.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 48.7% 48.9% +0.2%
Romney 47.1% 46.4% -0.7%
Margin O+1.6% O+2.5% O+0.9%

New Jersey

Stockton College: Obama 53.0, Romney 38.0; 811 LV, Oct. 12-18
SurveyUSA: Obama 54.0, Romney 40.0; 577 LV, Oct. 17-18

Notes: I’m still hearing hallucinations that New Jersey is in play. It’s not.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 51.7% 52.6% +0.9%
Romney 40.6% 39.9% -0.7%
Margin O+11.1% O+12.7% O+1.6%

New Mexico

PPP: Obama 53.0, Romney 44.0; 727 LV, Oct. 23-24

Notes: New Mexico slips some but not enough to be contestable.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 51.2% 52.0% +0.8%
Romney 40.8% 42.3% +1.5%
Margin O+10.4% O+9.7% O-0.7%

Nevada

Rasmussen: Obama 50.0, Romney 48.0; 500 LV, Oct. 23
PPP: Obama 51.0, Romney 47.0; 636 LV, Oct. 22-24
NBC/Marist: Obama 50.0, Romney 47.0; 1042 LV, Oct. 23-24
Gravis Marketing: Obama 50.0, Romney 49.0; 955 LV, Oct. 24

Notes: This part of Obama’s firewall still looks good.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 49.0% 49.8% +0.8%
Romney 46.0% 47.0% +1%
Margin O+3.0% O+2.8% O-0.2%

New York

Marist: Obama 61.0, Romney 35.0; 565 LV, Oct. 18-21
Siena: Obama 59.0, Romney 35.0; 750 LV, Oct. 22-24

Notes: It’s New York, people.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 61.6% 60.0% -1.6%
Romney 33.8% 34.9% +1.1%
Margin O+27.8% O+25.1% O-2.7%

Ohio

Fox News: Obama 46.0, Romney 43.0; 1131 LV, Oct. 17-18
Gravis Marketing: Obama 47.0, Romney 47.0; 1943 LV, Oct. 18-19
Quinnipiac: Obama 50.0, Romney 45.0; 1548 LV, Oct. 17-20
PPP: Obama 49.0, Romney 48.0; 532 LV, Oct. 18-20
Suffolk: Romney 48.0, Obama 47.0; 600 LV, Oct. 18-21
SurveyUSA: Obama 47.0, Romney 44.0; 609 LV, Oct. 20-22
Lake Research: Obama 46.0, Romney 44.0; 600 LV, Oct. 20-23
Time: Obama 49.0, Romney 44.0; 783 LV, Oct. 22-23
Rasmussen: Obama 48.0, Romney 48.0; 750 LV, Oct. 23
CNN/ORC: Obama 50.0, Romney 46.0; 741 LV, Oct. 23-25
PurplePoll: Obama 46.0, Romney 44.0; 600 LV, Oct. 23-25

Notes: The 11 polls here is easily the most for any given state during the general election. And despite all of these polls, Ohio still doesn’t move a whole lot. There is also somewhat of a divide between human-conducted polls, which favor Obama, and IVR polls, which show closer to a tie.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 48.4% 48.0% -0.4%
Romney 45.4% 45.5% +0.1%
Margin O+3.0% O+2.5% O-0.5%

Pennsylvania

Muhlenberg College: Obama 50.0, Romney 45.0; 444 LV, Oct. 17-21
Gravis Marketing: Obama 48.0, Romney 45.0; 887 LV, Oct. 21
Rasmussen: Obama 51.0, Romney 46.0; 500 LV, Oct. 24

Notes: This is probably the closest Pennsylvania has been all election, but likely not close enough for Romney.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 49.5% 49.6% +0.1%
Romney 43.4% 44.3% +0.9%
Margin O+6.1% O+5.3% O-0.8%

Utah

Key Research: Romney 71.0, Obama 20.0; 500 RV, Oct. 9-13

Notes: Utah looks to have the widest margin of victory outside of DC.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 26.0% 20.0% -6%
Romney 68.0% 71.0% +3%
Margin R+-42.0% R+-51% R+9%

Virginia

Old Dominion: Obama 50.0, Romney 43.0; 465 LV, Sep. 19 – Oct. 17
PPP: Obama 49.0, Romney 47.0; 500 LV, Oct. 18-19
PPP: Obama 51.0, Romney 46.0; 722 LV, Oct. 23-24
Fox News: Romney 46.0, Obama 44.0; 1126 LV, Oct. 23-24
Rasmussen: Romney 50.0, Obama 48.0; 750 LV, Oct. 24
PurplePoll: Obama 47.0, Romney 47.0; 600 LV, Oct. 23-25

Notes: Obama improves some, partly thanks to an Old Dominion poll that lasted a month. Without it, Obama leads this week by 0.6%,

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 48.2% 48.1% -0.1%
Romney 47.4% 47.0% -0.4%
Margin O+0.8% O+1.1% O+0.3%

Washington

Strategies 360: Obama 52.0, Romney 39.0; 500 LV, Oct. 17-20

Notes: No worries in Washington for Obama.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 52.9% 52.6% -0.3%
Romney 41.8% 41.3% -0.5%
Margin O+11.1% O+11.3% O+0.2%

Wisconsin

Mason-Dixon: Obama 48.0, Romney 46.0; 625 LV, Oct. 15-17
PPP: Obama 51.0, Romney 45.0; 827 LV, Oct. 23-24
Rasmussen: Obama 49.0, Romney 49.0; 500 LV, Oct. 25

Notes: Wisconsin is close again, but Obama is still, for the moment, at 50% in the average.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 50.3% 50.0% -0.3%
Romney 46.5% 46.6% +0.1%
Margin O+3.8% O+3.4% O-0.4%

Two-Week Average for October 9 – 22: Obama 47.2%, Romney 47.2%

The Presidential race continues to narrow, despite Obama’s apparent win in the second debate, and the race is now tied at 47.2% apiece, the first time Romney has not trailed by at least some margin in the 2-week average:

Obama: 47.2% (-0.7%)
Romney: 47.2% (+1%)

Margin: Tied (O-1.7%)

This average included 12 national polls:

  • Fox News from October 7-9 (Romney 46, Obama 45)
  • UConn/Hartford Courant from October 11-16 (Obama 48, Romney 45)
  • Politico/GWU/Battleground from Oct. 14-18 (Romney 49, Obama 47)*
  • Gravis Marketing from October 18 (Romney 46, Obama 44)
  • NBC/Wall Street Journal from October 17-20 (Obama 47, Romney 47)
  • Quinnipiac/CBS from October 17-20 (Obama 48, Romney 46)
  • Washington Times/Zogby from October 18-20 (Obama 50, Romney 47)*
  • American Research Group from October 18-21 (Romney 49, Obama 47)*
  • Monmouth/SurveyUSA from October 18-21 (Romney 48, Obama 45)
  • PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU from October 18-21 (Obama 48, Romney 48)*
  • Democracy Corps from October 18-21 (Obama 49, Romney 46)
  • ABC/Washington Post from October 19-22 (Romney 49, Obama 48)**

*Politico/GWU/Battleground, PPP/DailyKos/SEIU, Washington Times/Zogby, and American Research Group all released multiple polls during this two-week period. Only their most recently released poll is used.

**ABC News/Washington Post released an earlier standard 3-day poll earlier in the cycle, then switched to a daily tracker. For consistency’s sake, I used the latest tracking number as their poll result in this average.

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October 22: State of the Race

Welcome to the October 22th state of the race. In this edition we will compare what the race for president looks like compared to last Monday, October 15th. This status report shows that the second debate may have slowed Romney’s momentum, but didn’t fully stop it.

I’ll evaluate the race using five different metrics, with a slight change to one:

  • Current state of the race with TCtC states
  • Current state of the race with leaners
  • Obama EV total in states where he has 50% in the average
  • Obama EV total in states where he has 48% in the average
  • Electoral Vote total assuming a 2:1 undecided swing to Romney

State of the Race: Electoral Count including Too Close to Call

Obama: 237 (-4)
Romney: 180 (+10)
TCtC: 121 (-6)

Obama again drops, this time for losing New Hampshire. He’s now down to 237 electoral votes on the map. Romney gains Missouri back, putting him at 180. This isn’t Obama’s low point that he was at in late August and early September, and I don’t think he’ll match it, but this is not the best time for Obama to be bottoming out in any of these counts.

State of the Race: Electoral Count including leaners

Obama: 303 (NC)
Romney: 235 (NC)

No change on this count for now, though Obama is perilously close to losing Colorado right now, which would put him under 300. Romney’s position has strengthened a little in Florida, which he picked up last week.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming Obama needs 50% in the average

Romney: 344 (+17)
Obama: 194 (-17)

Once again Obama drops in the metric showing how many states he has 50% in the average in. I think the moves here were Wisconsin going over 50% again and Pennsylvania and Oregon dropping under 50%, for a net of minus 17. Three weeks or so ago, Obama was nearing his needed 270 on this metric. No longer.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming Obama needs 48% in the average and leads

Obama: 294 (NC)
Romney: 244 (NC)

Luckily for Obama, while some states slipped to under 50%, no new states slipped under 48% in the past week, though none went back over it either. This is perhaps a sign that at least Obama has mostly stopped falling, though Romney could still be gaining by picking up previously undecided voters.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming undecideds break 2-to-1 toward Romney

Obama: 281 (NC)
Romney: 257 (NC)

Perhaps another sign that things may be starting to level out is that Obama lost no more states in the 2-to-1 scenario, though Ohio is currently the next state to go.

Right now, Romney wins Virginia by 0.5%, Colorado by 1.4%, and Florida by 2.5%. Meanwhile, Obama wins Ohio by 0.2%, Iowa by 0.8%, Nevada by 1.3%, New Hampshire by 1.5%, and Wisconsin by 2.7%

Two weeks ago, Romney needed an 88-12 split in undecideds to win. Last week that dropped to 80-20. This week that drops to only 69-31. If Romney gains any more ground, it will be likely that he will be leading the 2-to-1 metric come next Monday.

Polling Update: October 13 – 19

Between October 13th and 19th, there were 51 polls released for 27 states, surveying 39,990 people. States polled the most this week were Washington (yes, that Washington) at 4 and Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all getting polled 3 times.

The overall trend lines are still in Romney’s direction, but not as many and not as severe as last week. This week 17 states trended toward Romney, 8 states trended toward Obama, with 2 new states (Idaho, District of Columbia). However, 16 of the 25 states that trended in one direction or the other did so by 1% or less this week, suggesting that the race has for the most part stabilized. It’s still early to gauge what difference the 2nd debate might have had, though there doesn’t appear to be any major movement from it yet.

As far as the major swing states, Obama is up 0.4% in Colorado and 0.1% in Nevada. However, Romney is up 0.8% in Florida, 0.1% in Iowa, 3.7% in New Hampshire, 0.7% in North Carolina, 0.1% in Ohio, 0.7% in Virginia, and 0.8% in Wisconsin from last week.

Changes this week include:

  • Arizona switching from Weak Romney to Too Close to Call
  • Florida switching from Tie to Lean Romney
  • Georgia switching from Strong Romney to Weak Romney
  • Missouri switching from Too Close to Call to Weak Romney
  • Montana switching from Strong Romney to Weak Romney
  • New Hampshire switching from Weak Obama to Too Close to Call

Previous results are in parentheses.
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