Projection and Polling Roundup

If you missed the flurry of posts last night and this morning, you can find them all again here.

First, the big one, the Electoral College Projection. I had two projection models, both ended up coming out to Obama 303 Romney 235.

I also did some Senate projections. It came out to be a 54-46 democratic senate, though with some heavy caveats.

Of course, there is the November 5th polling report.

The final 2-week national average

And the final State of the Race report.

Also, some oddities in this election that could happen:

  1. If Obama wins re-election, it will be the first time we have back-to-back-to-back two term presidents (Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama) since Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe. Yes, it’s really been that long.
  2. If Obama wins, it will likely be the first time an incumbent won re-election with a lower share of the popular vote than in his first election since Andrew Jackson in 1832 (not counting FDR’s 3rd and 4th election)
  3. If Obama wins, it will likely be the first time an incumbent won re-election with a smaller number of electoral votes than his original victory since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 (not counting FDR’s 3rd and 4th election)
  4. If Romney wins, it will be the first time a sitting member of the House of Representatives (Paul Ryan) will be elected President or Vice President since Speaker of the House John Nance Garner was elected as Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first Vice President in 1932.
  5. If Romney wins, he would be the first President from Massachusetts since John F. Kennedy in 1956 and the first former governor of Massachusetts to be elected president since Calvin Coolidge in 1924
  6. Romney is potentially facing the largest home-state loss ever. The largest home-state loss in a two-man race by a major party candidate who didn’t share his home state with the winning candidate was Adlai Stevenson losing Illinois to President Eisenhower by 19.2% in 1956.