How did the Polls do: Swing State Roundup

This is the next in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on election day. Today, I look at swing states as a group, reviewing how pollsters did, on average, if they polled 3 or more swing states.

I’ll review both the average miss and the partisan index, and give each pollster a final score by adding the two numbers together:

Pollster States Polled Median Miss Avg. Miss Partisan Index Pollster Rating Record
Angus Reid FL, OH, PA, WI 0.5% 0.6% R+0.6% 1.2 3-0-1
Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT FL, OH, VA 1.9% 1.3% O+0.1% 1.4 3-0
Mellman Group FL, IA, NV, OH, VA 1.1% 1.7% R+0.5% 2.2 5-0
CNN CO, FL, OH 1.9% 1.8% R+1.8% 3.5 2-1
Grove Insights CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, WI 1.7% 1.9% R+0.4% 2.4 7-1
PPP All 1.9% 1.9% R+0.9% 2.8 10-0
Lake Research CO, NH, OH 1.0% 2.0% R+2.0% 4.0 3-0
WeAskAmerica CO, FL, IA, OH, VA, WI 1.9% 2.1% R+1.7% 3.8 5-1
Electoral-vote.us All 2.7% 2.2% R+2.2% 4.4 9-1
Reuters/Ipsos CO, FL, OH, VA 1.9% 2.3% R+1.8% 4.1 3-1
YouGov CO, FL, IA, NV, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI 2.6% 2.4% R+1.8% 4.2 8-1
SurveyUSA FL, CO, NV, NC, OH 2.7% 2.4% R+1.6% 4.0 4-0-1
Gravis Marketing FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA 2.4% 2.9% R+2.9% 5.8 6-0-2
NBC/Marist CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI 3.0% 3.0% R+1.9% 4.9 7-0-1
Pulse Opinion Research FL, OH, PA, VA, WI 2.9% 3.0% R+3.0% 6.0 4-1
Zogby FL, OH, VA 4.1% 3.1% O+2.6% 5.7 3-0
Purple Strategies CO, OH, VA 3.9% 3.1% R+3.1% 6.2 2-0-1
CallFire CO, IA, NV 2.8% 3.3% R+3.3% 6.6 3-0
Rasmussen All 4.4% 4.7% R+4.7% 9.4 4-4-2
ARG CO, IA, NV, NH, OH 5.6% 4.9% R+4.9% 9.8 2-2-1
Wenzel Strategies OH, VA, WI 6.0% 5.6% R+5.6% 11.2 1-2

How did the Polls do: Pennsylvania

This is the tenth in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on a state-by-state basis among the 10 closest battleground states, how they did on the national popular vote, and how they did overall as pollsters.

Today we look at late joiner to the swing state club: Pennsylvania

This review looks at the last poll conducted by each pollster within roughly the final two weeks of the campaign (polls that were in the field on October 20th or later). For Pennsylvania, there were 10 polls plus my own ratings.

The “margin miss” is how far off of the final margin the poll was. The “absolute miss” is how far off the poll was from the final percentages.

Pollster Dates Margin Miss Absolute Miss
Rasmussen 10/24 R+0.4% 1.6%
PPP 11/2 – 11/3 O+0.6% 0.6%
Philadelphia Inquirer 10/23 – 10/25 O+0.6% 6.6%
Electoral-vote.us 11/6 R+1.3% 4.1%
Angus Reid 11/2 – 11/4 R+1.4% 1.4%
Franklin & Marshall College 10/23 – 10/28 R+1.4% 4.6%
Gravis Marketing 11/4 R+2.4% 3.6%
Muhlenberg College 11/1 – 11/3 R+2.4% 3.6%
Pulse Opinion Research 10/30 R+2.4% 3.6%
YouGov 11/31 – 11/3 O+2.6% 2.6%
Susquehanna 10/19 – 10/31 R+5.4% 5.4%

How did the Polls do: North Carolina

This is the ninth in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on a state-by-state basis among the 10 closest battleground states, how they did on the national popular vote, and how they did overall as pollsters.

Today we look at the only swing state that Obama lost: North Carolina

This review looks at the last poll conducted by each pollster within roughly the final two weeks of the campaign (polls that were in the field on October 20th or later). For North Carolina, there were 9 polls plus my own ratings.

The “margin miss” is how far off of the final margin the poll was. The “absolute miss” is how far off the poll was from the final percentages.

Pollster Dates Margin Miss Absolute Miss
YouGov 10/31 – 11/3 0.0% 2.8%
Electoral-vote.us 11/6 R+0.4% 2.8%
National Research 10/20 – 10/21 O+1.0% 3.8%
High Point University 10/22 – 10/30 O+1.0% 7.8%
PPP 11/3 – 11/4 O+1.8% 1.8%
Gravis Marketing 11/4 R+2.0% 2.8%
Elon University 10/21 – 10/26 O+2.1% 8.1%
SurveyUSA 10/26 – 10/29 R+3.0% 3.8%
Rasmussen 10/25 R+4.0% 4.0%
Grove Insights 10/23 – 10/24 O+5.0% 7.8%

How did the Polls do: New Hampshire

This is the eighth in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on a state-by-state basis among the 10 closest battleground states, how they did on the national popular vote, and how they did overall as pollsters.

Today we look at the ultimate swing state: New Hampshire

This review looks at the last poll conducted by each pollster within roughly the final two weeks of the campaign (polls that were in the field on October 20th or later). For New Hampshire, there were 9 polls plus my own ratings.

The “margin miss” is how far off of the final margin the poll was. The “absolute miss” is how far off the poll was from the final percentages.

Pollster Dates Margin Miss Absolute Miss
Lake Research 10/24 – 10/28 R+0.6% 9.4%
New England College 11/3 – 11/4 R+1.6% 2.4%
University of New Hampshire 11/1 – 11/4 R+1.6% 2.4%
Grove Insights 10/24 – 10/25 R+2.6% 7.4%
Electoral-vote.us 11/6 R+3.1% 3.1%
NBC/Marist 10/28 – 10/29 R+3.6% 3.6%
PPP 11/3 – 11/4 R+3.6% 3.6%
Rasmussen 11/4 R+3.6% 3.6%
Gravis Marketing 11/1 R+4.6% 4.6%
American Research Group 11/2 – 11/4 R+5.6% 5.6%

How did the Polls do: Nevada

This is the seventh in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on a state-by-state basis among the 10 closest battleground states, how they did on the national popular vote, and how they did overall as pollsters.

Today we look at the most western swing state: Nevada

This review looks at the last poll conducted by each pollster within roughly the final two weeks of the campaign (polls that were in the field on October 20th or later). For Nevada, there were 10 polls plus my own ratings.

The “margin miss” is how far off of the final margin the poll was. The “absolute miss” is how far off the poll was from the final percentages.

Pollster Dates Margin Miss Absolute Miss
Mellman Group 10/29 – 10/31 R+0.7% 4.1%
Grove Insights 10/27 – 10/29 R+0.7% 6.1%
CallFire 10/23 – 10/25 R+2.7% 2.7%
PPP 11/3 – 11/4 R+2.7% 2.7%
SurveyUSA 10/23 – 10/29 R+2.7% 2.7%
YouGov 10/31 – 11/3 R+2.7% 4.1%
Electoral-vote.us 11/6 R+3.1% 3.1%
NBC/Marist 10/23 – 10/24 R+3.7% 3.7%
American Research Group 10/19 – 10/22 R+4.7% 4.7%
Rasmussen 10/23 R+4.7% 4.7%
Gravis Marketing 10/24 R+5.7% 5.7%