How did the Polls do: Ohio

This is the first in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on a state-by-state basis among the 10 closest battleground states, how they did on the national popular vote, and how they did overall as pollsters.

We start this series with the state that handed Barack Obama his 2nd term: Ohio.

This review looks at the last poll conducted by each pollster within roughly the final two weeks of the campaign (polls that were in the field on October 20th or later). For Ohio, there were 24 polls plus my own ratings.

The “margin miss” is how far off of the final margin the poll was. The “absolute miss” is how far off the poll was from the final percentages.

Pollster Dates Margin Miss Absolute Miss
Angus Reid 11/2 – 11/4 0.0% 0.6%
CNN 10/30 – 11/1 0.0% 1.4%
YouGov 10/31 – 11/3 0.0% 3.4%
Pharos Research 10/26 – 10/28 R+0.3% 3.1%
Electoral-Votes.us 11/6 R+0.4% 3.0%
Columbus Dispatch 10/24 – 11/3 R+1.0% 1.0%
American Research Group 10/23 – 10/25 R+1.0% 2.4%
Reuters/Ipsos 11/3 – 11/5 O+1.0% 2.4%
Grove Insight 11/1 – 11/2 O+1.0% 4.4%
Pulse Opinion Research 10/29 R+1.0% 4.4%
Lake Research 10/20 – 10/23 R+1.0% 8.4%
Purple Strategies 10/23 – 10/25 R+1.0% 8.4%
WeAskAmerica 10/30 – 11/1 O+1.4% 2.4%
University of Cincinnati 10/31 – 11/4 R+1.5% 1.5%
Gravis Marketing 11/4 – 11/5 R+2.0% 2.0%
PPP 11/3 – 11/4 O+2.0% 2.0%
Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT 10/23 – 10/28 O+2.0% 3.4%
Mellman Group 10/23 – 10/25 O+2.0% 5.4%
SurveyUSA 11/1 – 11/4 O+2.0% 5.4%
Time 10/22 – 10/23 O+2.0% 5.4%
NBC/Marist 10/31 – 11/1 O+3.0% 3.0%
Rasmussen 11/4 R+3.0% 3.0%
Suffolk 10/18 – 10/21 R+3.0% 4.4%
Zogby 11/3 – 11/5 O+4.4% 4.4%
Wenzel Strategies 10/30 – 10/31 R+6.0% 6.0%