How did the Polls do: Florida

This is the second in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on a state-by-state basis among the 10 closest battleground states, how they did on the national popular vote, and how they did overall as pollsters.

Today we look at the largest swing state: Florida

This review looks at the last poll conducted by each pollster within roughly the final two weeks of the campaign (polls that were in the field on October 20th or later). For Florida, there were 18 polls plus my own ratings.

The “margin miss” is how far off of the final margin the poll was. The “absolute miss” is how far off the poll was from the final percentages.

Pollster Dates Margin Miss Absolute Miss
PPP 11/3 – 11/4 O+0.1% 0.1%
Grove Insights 10/28 – 10/29 O+0.1% 4.1%
Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT 10/23 – 10/28 O+0.1% 4.1%
Pharos Research 10/19 – 10/21 R+0.7% 5.7%
Zogby 11/3 – 11/5 R+0.8% 3.6%
Angus Reid 11/1 – 11/3 R+0.9% 1.1%
Gravis Marketing 11/4 – 11/5 R+0.9% 1.1%
SurveyUSA 10/25 – 10/27 R+0.9% 5.1%
NBC/Marist 10/31 – 11/1 O+1.1% 3.1%
Mellman Group 10/30 – 11/2 O+1.1% 7.1%
Electoral-Votes.us 11/6 R+1.7% 2.5%
WeAskAmerica 10/30 R+1.8% 1.8%
CNN 10/25 – 10/28 R+1.9% 1.9%
Reuters/Ipsos 11/3 – 11/5 R+1.9% 4.1%
YouGov 10/31 – 11/3 R+1.9% 4.1%
Pulse Opinion Research 10/29 R+2.9% 2.9%
Rasmussen 10/25 R+2.9% 2.9%
InsiderAdvantage 11/4 R+5.9% 5.9%
Sunshine State News 10/22 – 10/24 R+5.9% 5.9%
Mason-Dixon 10/30 – 11/1 R+6.9% 6.9%