This is the second in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on a state-by-state basis among the 10 closest battleground states, how they did on the national popular vote, and how they did overall as pollsters.
Today we look at the largest swing state: Florida
This review looks at the last poll conducted by each pollster within roughly the final two weeks of the campaign (polls that were in the field on October 20th or later). For Florida, there were 18 polls plus my own ratings.
The “margin miss” is how far off of the final margin the poll was. The “absolute miss” is how far off the poll was from the final percentages.
|Pollster||Dates||Margin Miss||Absolute Miss|
|PPP||11/3 – 11/4||O+0.1%||0.1%|
|Grove Insights||10/28 – 10/29||O+0.1%||4.1%|
|Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT||10/23 – 10/28||O+0.1%||4.1%|
|Pharos Research||10/19 – 10/21||R+0.7%||5.7%|
|Zogby||11/3 – 11/5||R+0.8%||3.6%|
|Angus Reid||11/1 – 11/3||R+0.9%||1.1%|
|Gravis Marketing||11/4 – 11/5||R+0.9%||1.1%|
|SurveyUSA||10/25 – 10/27||R+0.9%||5.1%|
|NBC/Marist||10/31 – 11/1||O+1.1%||3.1%|
|Mellman Group||10/30 – 11/2||O+1.1%||7.1%|
|CNN||10/25 – 10/28||R+1.9%||1.9%|
|Reuters/Ipsos||11/3 – 11/5||R+1.9%||4.1%|
|YouGov||10/31 – 11/3||R+1.9%||4.1%|
|Pulse Opinion Research||10/29||R+2.9%||2.9%|
|Sunshine State News||10/22 – 10/24||R+5.9%||5.9%|
|Mason-Dixon||10/30 – 11/1||R+6.9%||6.9%|