Two-Week Average for October 23 – November 5: Obama 47.9%, Romney 47.1%

The last two week average was an exact tie, so it was important to see if anyone got momentum in the final two weeks. It looks like Obama got that momentum, although somewhat slightly, building up a 9/10ths of a percent lead on Governor Romney on the eve of the election:

Obama: 47.9% (+0.7%)
Romney: 47.1% (-0.1%)

Margin: O+0.8% (O+0.8%)

This average included 22 national polls:

  • Associated Press/Gfk from October 19-23 (Romney 47, Obama 45)
  • National Public Radio from October 23-25 (Romney 48, Obama 47)
  • CBS/New York Times from Oct. 25-28 (Obama 48, Romney 47)
  • National Journal from Oct. 25-28 (Obama 50, Romney 45)
  • High Point University from Oct. 22-30 (Obama 46, Romney 43)
  • Fox News from Oct. 28-30 (Obama 46, Romney 46)
  • Washington Times/Zogby from Oct. 29-31 (Obama 49, Romney 49)
  • Purple Strategies from Oct. 31 – Nov. 1 (Obama 47, Romney 46)
  • Pew Research from. Oct. 31 – Nov. 3 (Obama 48, Romney 45)
  • NBC/Wall Street Journal from Nov.1-3 (Obama 48, Romney 47)
  • ABC News/Washington Post from Nov. 1-4 (Obama 50, Romney 47)
  • Democracy Corps from Nov. 1-4 (Obama 49, Romney 45)
  • Gallup from Nov. 1-4 (Romney 49, Obama 48)
  • Monmouth University from Nov. 1-4 (Obama 48, Romney 48)
  • PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU from Nov. 1-4 (Obama 50, Romney 48)
  • American Research Group from Nov. 2-4 (Obama 49, Romney 49)
  • CNN/ORC from Nov. 2-4 (Obama 49, Romney 49)
  • Rasmussen from Nov. 2-4 (Romney 49, Obama 48)
  • UPI/CVoter from Nov. 3-5 (Obama 49, Romney 48)
  • Gravis Marketing from Nov. 3-5 (Obama 48, Romney 48)
  • IBD/TIPP from Nov. 3-5 (Obama 50, Romney 49)
  • Politico/GWU/Battleground from Nov. 4-5 (Obama 47, Romney 47)

The closeness of the national popular vote can be see via the 7 ties among the 22 polls conducted. However, Obama appears to have the advantage by virtue of leading in 11 polls versus Romney’s 4, and two of the four Romney polls are the two oldest polls in the list.

Obama certainly has some worry signs as the average still has him only around 48%, but the fact that the trend appears to be in his direction goes in his favor. His average is slightly higher than it was during the September 25th to October 8th period, which split between pre-first debate and post-first debate. It’s also 1.3% higher than it was through most of the summer.

Romney’s average is the same as last week, demonstrating that while he hasn’t lost any support in the past week, he also hasn’t gained any ground either.

To compare against previous elections, the final average in 2000 was Bush leading by about 2.5%, 46.2% to 43.6%. The actual election results were about 3% off, but there were  also a full 10% undecided even going into election day in 2000, which is twice the number as today.

2004 saw Bush leading Kerry by 1.2% in the polls, 48.9% to 47.1%, and ultimately winning by 2.4% on election day. Bush gained 1.8% over his final 2-week average while Kerry gained 1.2%. Unlike this time, it was Kerry who appeared to have the momentum in 2004 while Bush was stalled, but Bush pretty evenly split the final undecided vote pretty evenly nevertheless.

2008 saw Obama leading by 7.2% in the final average and winning by the same 7.2% margin, with both candidates gaining 1.9% on election day over their final polling average.

In all three cases – 2000, 2004, and 2008 – the incumbent party improved on it’s final polling average in the final election day results, so there should be no surprise if Obama does the same. The question is how much do those votes break. Assuming 1% vote for third parties, Romney needs late deciders to break about 60-40 or so his way to win the popular vote based on this average. That ratio will go up if the 3rd party share is higher than 1%.

Two-Week Average for October 9 – 22: Obama 47.2%, Romney 47.2%

The Presidential race continues to narrow, despite Obama’s apparent win in the second debate, and the race is now tied at 47.2% apiece, the first time Romney has not trailed by at least some margin in the 2-week average:

Obama: 47.2% (-0.7%)
Romney: 47.2% (+1%)

Margin: Tied (O-1.7%)

This average included 12 national polls:

  • Fox News from October 7-9 (Romney 46, Obama 45)
  • UConn/Hartford Courant from October 11-16 (Obama 48, Romney 45)
  • Politico/GWU/Battleground from Oct. 14-18 (Romney 49, Obama 47)*
  • Gravis Marketing from October 18 (Romney 46, Obama 44)
  • NBC/Wall Street Journal from October 17-20 (Obama 47, Romney 47)
  • Quinnipiac/CBS from October 17-20 (Obama 48, Romney 46)
  • Washington Times/Zogby from October 18-20 (Obama 50, Romney 47)*
  • American Research Group from October 18-21 (Romney 49, Obama 47)*
  • Monmouth/SurveyUSA from October 18-21 (Romney 48, Obama 45)
  • PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU from October 18-21 (Obama 48, Romney 48)*
  • Democracy Corps from October 18-21 (Obama 49, Romney 46)
  • ABC/Washington Post from October 19-22 (Romney 49, Obama 48)**

*Politico/GWU/Battleground, PPP/DailyKos/SEIU, Washington Times/Zogby, and American Research Group all released multiple polls during this two-week period. Only their most recently released poll is used.

**ABC News/Washington Post released an earlier standard 3-day poll earlier in the cycle, then switched to a daily tracker. For consistency’s sake, I used the latest tracking number as their poll result in this average.

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Two-Week Average for September 25 – October 8: Obama 47.9%, Romney 46.2%

Obama’s debate performance has led to a dramatic narrowing in this two-week average, with the overal average over the time-span dropping to it’s 3rd narrowest margin since I started keeping track in early April, with Romney gaining almost 3% on President Obama:

Obama: 47.9% (-1.3%)
Romney: 46.2% (+1.5%)

Margin: O+1.7% (-2.8%)

This average included 13 national polls:

  • Fox News from September 24-26 (Obama 48, Romney 43)
  • Merriman River Group from September 24-27 (Obama 46, Romney 43)
  • ABC News/Washington Post from September 26-29 (Obama 49, Romney 47)
  • Quinnipiac from September 25-30 (Obama 49, Romney 45)
  • NBC/Wall Street Journal from September 26-30 (Obama 49, Romney 46)
  • NPR/Democracy Corp/Resurgent Republic from September 26-30 (Obama 51, Romney 41)
  • National Journal from September 27-30 (Obama 47, Romney 47)
  • CNN/ORC from September 28-30 (Obama 50, Romney 47)
  • Politico/GWU/Battleground from October 1-4* (Obama 49, Romney 47)
  • Pew Research from October 4-7 (Romney 49, Obama 45)
  • PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU from October 4-7* (Romney 49, Obama 47)
  • Washington Times/Zogby from October 5-7* (Obama 45, Romney 45)
  • American Research Group from October 5-8* (Romney 48, Obama 47)

*Politico/GWU/Battleground, PPP/DailyKos/SEIU, Washington Times/Zogby, and American Research Group all released multiple polls during this two-week period. Only their most recently released poll is used.
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Two-Week Average for September 11 – 24: Obama 49.2%, Romney 44.7% [Updated]

NOTE: This total has been adjusted from it’s original publication due to the addition of ARG’s national poll from September 17th-20th after this post’s original publication. Numbers in the post have been adjusted accordingly.

Obama has his largest lead in the two-week average since immediately preceding Romney’s pick of Ryan as his running mate. Additionally, Obama has his highest level of support ever in the average by 0.4% while Romney’s level of support is back to where it was from April through mid-July:

Obama: 49.2% (+0.5%)
Romney: 44.7% (-1.3%)

Margin: O+4.5% (+1.8%)

This average included 14 national polls:

  • Fox News from September 9-11 (Obama 48, Romney 43)
  • CBS News/NYT from September 8-12 (Obama 49, Romney 46)
  • Democracy Corp from September 8-12 (Obama 50, Romney 45)
  • NBC News/Wall Street Journal from September 12-16 (Obama 50, Romney 45)
  • Pew Research from September 12-16 (Obama 51, Romney 43)
  • Monmouth/SurveyUSA from September 13-16 (Obama 48, Romney 45)
  • Associated Press/GfK from September 13-17 (Obama 47, Romney 46)
  • Reason-Rupe from September 13-17 (Obama 52, Romney 45)
  • UConn/Hartford Courant from September 11-18 (Obama 46, Romney 43)
  • AllState/National Journal from September 15-19 (Obama 50, Romney 43)
  • Politoco/GWU/Battleground from September 16-20 (Obama 50, Romney 47)
  • American Research Group from September 17-20 (Obama 49, Romney 47)
  • PPP/SEIU/Daily Kos from September 20-23* (Obama 50, Romney 45)
  • Bloomberg  from September 21-24 (Obama 49, Romney 43)

*PPP/SEIU/Daily Kos released two polls during this two-week period. I am using the most recent poll released.
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Two-Week Average for August 28 – September 10: Obama 48.7%, Romney 46%

Obama has re-expanded his lead over Mitt Romney in the latest 2-week average of polls. The lead is somewhat comparable to what it was from April through mid-July, but Obama’s level of support has returned to it’s immediate pre-Ryan announcement levels:

Obama: 48.7% (+1.6%)
Romney: 46% (+0.4%)

Margin: O+2.7% (+1.2%)

This average included 7 national polls:

  • American Research Group from September 4-6 (Romney 49, Obama 46)
  • IBD/CSM/TIPP from September 4-9 (Obama 46, Romney 44)
  • ABC News/Washington Post from September 7-9 (Obama 49, Romney 48)
  • CNN/Opinion Research from September 7-9 (Obama 52, Romney 46)*
  • PPP/Daily Kos (D) from September 7-9 (Obama 50, Romney 44)
  • Esquire/Yahoo from September 7-10 (Obama 50, Romney 46)
  • Reuters/Ipsos from September 7-10 (Obama 48, Romney 45)

*CNN released two polls during this cycle. Whenever pollsters do that, I will include the most recently released poll in the average
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