Polling Update: November 4

On November 4, there were 22 polls from 14 states, surveying 18,357 people.

Romney saw movement in his direction in Florida, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and most notably Pennsylvania, where three narrow polls reduced the margin by over 1%.

Obama gained ground in Ohio and Virginia, while things stayed even in Nevada.

Tomorrow night will include the final polls of the 2012 election. What a long trip it’s been.

Continue reading

Polling Update: November 3

On November 3, there were 15 polls from 11 states, surveying 13,026 people. Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin each had two polls.

Obama gained ground or extended his lead in Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Romney gained ground or extended his lead in Florida and New Hampshire. Michigan and Wisconsin stayed even compared to yesterday.

Continue reading

Polling Update: October 27 – November 2

Between October 27 and November 2, there were 116 polls from 36 states, surveying 94,709 people. The top polled states this week were Michigan, New Hampshire, and Virginia with 6 polls, Florida, Iowa, and Wisconsin with 7 polls, Colorado with 8 polls, and Ohio with 15 polls.

Out of 36 states polled, Obama expanded his lead or gained ground in 17, Romney expanded his lead or gained ground in 16, one state had no change, and two state were polled for the first time (Kansas and South Dakota).

Out of the states candidates are competing over the most in the final stretch, Obama gained in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Romney gained in Minnesota, Ohio, and Virginia. Pennsylvania saw no change in the margin from last week.

Continue reading

Polling Update: October 20 – 26

Between October 20 and October 26, there were 67 polls from 22 states, surveying 48,799 people.

Arkansas

University of Arkansas: Romney 58.0, Obama 31.0; 642 LV, Oct. 9-14

Notes: Remember when Clinton won Arkansas twice?

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 35.0% 31.4% -3.6%
Romney 56.0% 57.8% +1.8%
Margin R+-21.0% R+-26.4% R+5.4%

Arizona

Rasmussen: Romney 52.0, Obama 44.0; 500 LV, Oct. 21

Notes: Demographics haven’t put Arizona in play quite yet

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 43.8% 43.9% +0.1%
Romney 47.6% 49.7% +2.1%
Margin R+-3.8% R+-5.8% R+2%

Colorado

Rasmussen: Romney 50.0, Obama 46.0; 500 LV, Oct. 21
NBC/Marist: Obama 48.0, Romney 48.0; 1128 LV, Oct. 23-24
Keating Research: Obama 48.0, Romney 45.0; 502 LV, Oct. 23-24
PPP: Obama 51.0, Romney 47.0; 904 LV, Oct. 23-25
PurplePoll: Obama 47.0, Romney 46.0; 600 LV, Oct. 23-25

Notes: Five polls and no change suggests things have leveled off in Colorado with a very slight Obama lead in the polls.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 48.0% 48.1% +0.1%
Romney 47.0% 47.1% +0.1%
Margin O+1.0% O+1% Even Even

Connecticut

Mason-Dixon: Obama 49.0, Romney 42.0; 625 LV, Oct. 15-17
SurveyUSA: Obama 53.0, Romney 40.0; 575 LV, Oct. 19-21
Rasmussen: Obama 52.0, Romney 45.0; 500 LV, Oct. 21
Quinnipiac: Obama 55.0, Romney 41.0; 1412 LV, Oct. 19-22

Notes: No suspense in Connecticut.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 52.4% 52.4% Even
Romney 40.5% 41.3% +0.8%
Margin O+11.9% O+11.1% O-0.8%

Florida

PPP: Romney 48.0, Obama 47.0; 800 LV, Oct. 17-18
SurveyUSA: Obama 47.0, Romney 46.0; 600 LV, Oct. 17-18
Fox News: Romney 48.0, Obama 45.0; 1130 LV, Oct. 17-18
CNN/ORC: Romney 49.0, Obama 48.0; 681 LV, Oct. 17-18
Gravis Marketing: Romney 50.0, Obama 49.0; 1182 LV, Oct. 24
Rasmussen: Romney 50.0, Obama 48.0; 750 LV, Oct. 25

Notes: Six polls and Florida more or less stays the same at around a 1% Romney lead.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 47.5% 47.5% Even
Romney 48.3% 48.5% +0.2%
Margin R+-0.8% R+-1% R+0.2%

Iowa

PPP: Obama 49.0, Romney 48.0; 660 LV, Oct. 18-19
Rasmussen: Obama 48.0, Romney 48.0; 500 LV, Oct. 21
PPP: Obama 49.0, Romney 47.0; 600 LV, Oct. 23-24
Gravis Marketing: Obama 50.0, Romney 46.0; 517 LV, Oct. 24

Notes: I think most of this drop is caused by the Rasmussen tie and the fact than an O+8 poll continues to age.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 49.1% 49.0% -0.1%
Romney 45.8% 46.6% +0.8%
Margin O+3.3% O+2.4% O-0.9%

Massachusetts

MassINC: Obama 56.0, Romney 36.0; 516 LV, Oct. 21-22

Notes: Yawn.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 56.7% 56.5% -0.2%
Romney 37.3% 36.9% -0.4%
Margin O+19.4% O+19.6% O+0.2%

Minnesota

Rasmussen: Obama 51.0, Romney 46.0; 500 LV, Oct. 21

Notes: I tend to doubt that Minnesota is this close, but we’ll see.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 51.0% 50.9% -0.1%
Romney 41.2% 43.2% +2%
Margin O+9.8% O+7.7% O-2.1%

Missouri

PPP: Romney 52.0, Obama 46.0; 582 LV, Oct. 19-21

Notes: Missouri shouldn’t give us much suspense on election night.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 44.0% 44.7% +0.7%
Romney 51.6% 51.8% +0.2%
Margin R+-7.6% R+-7.1% R-0.5%

North Carolina

National Research: Romney 48.0, Obama 47.0; 600 LV, Oct. 20-21
Gravis Marketing: Romney 53.0, Obama 45.0; 1723 LV, Oct. 24
PPP: Obama 48.0, Romney 48.0; 880 LV, Oct. 23-25

Notes: Excepting the Gravis poll, North Carolina still looks a lot closer than it probably should given the national race.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 46.3% 46.5% +0.2%
Romney 48.9% 49.3% +0.4%
Margin R+-2.6% R+-2.8% R+0.2%

North Dakota

Forum Communications: Romney 57.0, Obama 32.0; 500 LV, Oct. 12-15
Rasmussen: Romney 54.0, Obama 40.0; 600 LV, Oct. 17-18

Notes: There will be no toying with North Dakota this time.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 39.9% 36.8% -3.1%
Romney 53.9% 55.2% +1.3%
Margin R+-14.0% R+-18.4% R+4.4%

New Hampshire

University of New Hampshire: Obama 51.0, Romney 42.0; 773 LV, Oct. 17-21
Lake Research: Obama 48.0, Romney 45.0; 400 LV, Oct. 18-22
Rasmussen: Romney 50.0, Obama 48.0; 500 LV, Oct. 23
New England College: Obama 49.0, Romney 46.0; 571 LV, Oct. 23-25

Notes: The UNH poll and Rasmussen polls look like outliers on the opposite side of the spectrum, with two O+3 polls in the middle.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 48.7% 48.9% +0.2%
Romney 47.1% 46.4% -0.7%
Margin O+1.6% O+2.5% O+0.9%

New Jersey

Stockton College: Obama 53.0, Romney 38.0; 811 LV, Oct. 12-18
SurveyUSA: Obama 54.0, Romney 40.0; 577 LV, Oct. 17-18

Notes: I’m still hearing hallucinations that New Jersey is in play. It’s not.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 51.7% 52.6% +0.9%
Romney 40.6% 39.9% -0.7%
Margin O+11.1% O+12.7% O+1.6%

New Mexico

PPP: Obama 53.0, Romney 44.0; 727 LV, Oct. 23-24

Notes: New Mexico slips some but not enough to be contestable.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 51.2% 52.0% +0.8%
Romney 40.8% 42.3% +1.5%
Margin O+10.4% O+9.7% O-0.7%

Nevada

Rasmussen: Obama 50.0, Romney 48.0; 500 LV, Oct. 23
PPP: Obama 51.0, Romney 47.0; 636 LV, Oct. 22-24
NBC/Marist: Obama 50.0, Romney 47.0; 1042 LV, Oct. 23-24
Gravis Marketing: Obama 50.0, Romney 49.0; 955 LV, Oct. 24

Notes: This part of Obama’s firewall still looks good.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 49.0% 49.8% +0.8%
Romney 46.0% 47.0% +1%
Margin O+3.0% O+2.8% O-0.2%

New York

Marist: Obama 61.0, Romney 35.0; 565 LV, Oct. 18-21
Siena: Obama 59.0, Romney 35.0; 750 LV, Oct. 22-24

Notes: It’s New York, people.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 61.6% 60.0% -1.6%
Romney 33.8% 34.9% +1.1%
Margin O+27.8% O+25.1% O-2.7%

Ohio

Fox News: Obama 46.0, Romney 43.0; 1131 LV, Oct. 17-18
Gravis Marketing: Obama 47.0, Romney 47.0; 1943 LV, Oct. 18-19
Quinnipiac: Obama 50.0, Romney 45.0; 1548 LV, Oct. 17-20
PPP: Obama 49.0, Romney 48.0; 532 LV, Oct. 18-20
Suffolk: Romney 48.0, Obama 47.0; 600 LV, Oct. 18-21
SurveyUSA: Obama 47.0, Romney 44.0; 609 LV, Oct. 20-22
Lake Research: Obama 46.0, Romney 44.0; 600 LV, Oct. 20-23
Time: Obama 49.0, Romney 44.0; 783 LV, Oct. 22-23
Rasmussen: Obama 48.0, Romney 48.0; 750 LV, Oct. 23
CNN/ORC: Obama 50.0, Romney 46.0; 741 LV, Oct. 23-25
PurplePoll: Obama 46.0, Romney 44.0; 600 LV, Oct. 23-25

Notes: The 11 polls here is easily the most for any given state during the general election. And despite all of these polls, Ohio still doesn’t move a whole lot. There is also somewhat of a divide between human-conducted polls, which favor Obama, and IVR polls, which show closer to a tie.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 48.4% 48.0% -0.4%
Romney 45.4% 45.5% +0.1%
Margin O+3.0% O+2.5% O-0.5%

Pennsylvania

Muhlenberg College: Obama 50.0, Romney 45.0; 444 LV, Oct. 17-21
Gravis Marketing: Obama 48.0, Romney 45.0; 887 LV, Oct. 21
Rasmussen: Obama 51.0, Romney 46.0; 500 LV, Oct. 24

Notes: This is probably the closest Pennsylvania has been all election, but likely not close enough for Romney.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 49.5% 49.6% +0.1%
Romney 43.4% 44.3% +0.9%
Margin O+6.1% O+5.3% O-0.8%

Utah

Key Research: Romney 71.0, Obama 20.0; 500 RV, Oct. 9-13

Notes: Utah looks to have the widest margin of victory outside of DC.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 26.0% 20.0% -6%
Romney 68.0% 71.0% +3%
Margin R+-42.0% R+-51% R+9%

Virginia

Old Dominion: Obama 50.0, Romney 43.0; 465 LV, Sep. 19 – Oct. 17
PPP: Obama 49.0, Romney 47.0; 500 LV, Oct. 18-19
PPP: Obama 51.0, Romney 46.0; 722 LV, Oct. 23-24
Fox News: Romney 46.0, Obama 44.0; 1126 LV, Oct. 23-24
Rasmussen: Romney 50.0, Obama 48.0; 750 LV, Oct. 24
PurplePoll: Obama 47.0, Romney 47.0; 600 LV, Oct. 23-25

Notes: Obama improves some, partly thanks to an Old Dominion poll that lasted a month. Without it, Obama leads this week by 0.6%,

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 48.2% 48.1% -0.1%
Romney 47.4% 47.0% -0.4%
Margin O+0.8% O+1.1% O+0.3%

Washington

Strategies 360: Obama 52.0, Romney 39.0; 500 LV, Oct. 17-20

Notes: No worries in Washington for Obama.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 52.9% 52.6% -0.3%
Romney 41.8% 41.3% -0.5%
Margin O+11.1% O+11.3% O+0.2%

Wisconsin

Mason-Dixon: Obama 48.0, Romney 46.0; 625 LV, Oct. 15-17
PPP: Obama 51.0, Romney 45.0; 827 LV, Oct. 23-24
Rasmussen: Obama 49.0, Romney 49.0; 500 LV, Oct. 25

Notes: Wisconsin is close again, but Obama is still, for the moment, at 50% in the average.

Candidate 10/20 Avg. 10/26 Avg. Change
Obama 50.3% 50.0% -0.3%
Romney 46.5% 46.6% +0.1%
Margin O+3.8% O+3.4% O-0.4%