How did the Polls do: Overall Pollster Ratings

This is the final in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on a state-by-state basis among the 10 closest battleground states, how they did on the national popular vote, and how they did overall as pollsters.

Today we look at overall pollster ratings for all states nationwide. This review looks at all pollsters who conducted at least 5 polls in roughly the final 2 weeks (they had a poll in the field from Oct. 20 and on), as well as how I did in my averages nationwide.

The “average miss” is the average miss from the final margin in the state. “Median miss” is the median (in the middle) miss among all polls conducted. Partisan miss is the average miss toward one candidate or the other. The pollster rating is the average miss added to the partisan miss.

Pollster # of Polls Avg. Miss Median Miss Partisan Miss Pollster Rating
Mellman Group 5 1.7% 1.1% R+0.5% 2.2
Grove Insights 9 2.0% 2.4% R+0.6% 2.6
Angus Reid 5 1.4% 0.9% R+1.3% 2.7
SurveyUSA 11 2.2% 2.4% R+0.6% 2.8
WeAskAmerica 9 2.7% 2.0% R+0.5% 3.2
Five Thirty Eight 51 3.1% 2.5% R+0.6% 3.7
Pharos Research 6 2.5% 2.7% O+1.3% 3.8
YouGov 10 2.4% 2.6% R+1.9% 4.3
PPP 21 3.0% 2.3% R+1.5% 4.5
Electoral-Vote.us 45 3.7% 3.2% R+1.2% 4.9
NBC/Marist 8 3.0% 3.3% R+1.9% 4.9
Mason-Dixon 6 4.6% 4.2% R+0.5% 5.1
Gravis Marketing 9 2.6% 2.0% R+2.6% 5.2
Pulse Opinion Research 5 3.0% 2.9% R+3.0% 6.0
Rasmussen 17 4.4% 4.0% R+3.7% 8.1
American Research Group 5 4.9% 5.6% R+4.9% 9.8

How did the Polls do: National Popular Vote

This is the next in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on a state-by-state basis among the 10 closest battleground states, how they did on the national popular vote, and how they did overall as pollsters.

Today we look at how pollsters did compared to the national popular vote.

This review looks at the last poll conducted by each pollster within roughly the final two weeks of the campaign (polls that were in the field on October 20th or later). For the national popular vote, there were 27 polls.

The “margin miss” is how far off the poll was from the final margin. The “absolute miss” is how far off the poll was from the final percentages for each of the two candidates.

Pollster Poll Dates Margin Miss Absolute Miss
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Nov. 1-4 O+0.1% 4.3%
RAND Nov. 5 R+0.6% 2.6%
Angus Reid Nov. 1-3 R+0.9% 0.9%
ABC/Washington Post Nov. 1-4 R+0.9% 1.3%
Pew Research Oct. 31 – Nov. 3 R+0.9% 1.3%
Democracy Crops Oct. 18-21 R+0.9% 3.3%
High Point University Oct. 22-30 R+0.9% 9.3%
Princeton Survey Oct. 25-28 O+1.1% 3.3%
Pharos Research Oct. 19-21 R+1.6% 1.6%
PPP Nov. 1-4 R+1.9% 1.9%
YouGov Oct. 31 – Nov. 3 R+1.9% 3.3%
Reuters/Ipsos Nov. 1-5 R+1.9% 4.3%
IBD/TIPP Nov. 3-5 R+2.3% 2.3%
CBS/New York Times Oct. 25-28 R+2.9% 3.3%
NBC/Wall Street Journal Nov. 1-3 R+2.9% 3.3%
Purple Strategies Oct. 31 – Nov. 1 R+2.9% 5.3%
American Research Group Nov. 2-4 R+3.9% 3.9%
CNN Nov. 2-4 R+3.9% 3.9%
CVOTER International Oct. 25-31 R+3.9% 3.9%
Gravis Marketing Nov. 3-5 R+3.9% 3.9%
Monmouth/SurveyUSA Nov. 1-4 R+3.9% 3.9%
Politico/GWU Nov. 4-5 R+3.9% 4.3%
Fox News Oct. 28-30 R+3.9% 6.3%
Gallup Nov. 1-4 R+4.9% 4.9%
NPR Oct. 23-25 R+4.9% 4.9%
Rasmussen Nov. 3-5 R+4.9% 4.9%
Zogby Interactive Nov. 2-4 R+5.9% 5.9%
AP/GfK Oct. 19-23 R+5.9% 6.3%

How did the Polls do: Swing State Roundup

This is the next in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on election day. Today, I look at swing states as a group, reviewing how pollsters did, on average, if they polled 3 or more swing states.

I’ll review both the average miss and the partisan index, and give each pollster a final score by adding the two numbers together:

Pollster States Polled Median Miss Avg. Miss Partisan Index Pollster Rating Record
Angus Reid FL, OH, PA, WI 0.5% 0.6% R+0.6% 1.2 3-0-1
Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT FL, OH, VA 1.9% 1.3% O+0.1% 1.4 3-0
Mellman Group FL, IA, NV, OH, VA 1.1% 1.7% R+0.5% 2.2 5-0
CNN CO, FL, OH 1.9% 1.8% R+1.8% 3.5 2-1
Grove Insights CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, WI 1.7% 1.9% R+0.4% 2.4 7-1
PPP All 1.9% 1.9% R+0.9% 2.8 10-0
Lake Research CO, NH, OH 1.0% 2.0% R+2.0% 4.0 3-0
WeAskAmerica CO, FL, IA, OH, VA, WI 1.9% 2.1% R+1.7% 3.8 5-1
Electoral-vote.us All 2.7% 2.2% R+2.2% 4.4 9-1
Reuters/Ipsos CO, FL, OH, VA 1.9% 2.3% R+1.8% 4.1 3-1
YouGov CO, FL, IA, NV, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI 2.6% 2.4% R+1.8% 4.2 8-1
SurveyUSA FL, CO, NV, NC, OH 2.7% 2.4% R+1.6% 4.0 4-0-1
Gravis Marketing FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA 2.4% 2.9% R+2.9% 5.8 6-0-2
NBC/Marist CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI 3.0% 3.0% R+1.9% 4.9 7-0-1
Pulse Opinion Research FL, OH, PA, VA, WI 2.9% 3.0% R+3.0% 6.0 4-1
Zogby FL, OH, VA 4.1% 3.1% O+2.6% 5.7 3-0
Purple Strategies CO, OH, VA 3.9% 3.1% R+3.1% 6.2 2-0-1
CallFire CO, IA, NV 2.8% 3.3% R+3.3% 6.6 3-0
Rasmussen All 4.4% 4.7% R+4.7% 9.4 4-4-2
ARG CO, IA, NV, NH, OH 5.6% 4.9% R+4.9% 9.8 2-2-1
Wenzel Strategies OH, VA, WI 6.0% 5.6% R+5.6% 11.2 1-2

How did the Polls do: Pennsylvania

This is the tenth in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on a state-by-state basis among the 10 closest battleground states, how they did on the national popular vote, and how they did overall as pollsters.

Today we look at late joiner to the swing state club: Pennsylvania

This review looks at the last poll conducted by each pollster within roughly the final two weeks of the campaign (polls that were in the field on October 20th or later). For Pennsylvania, there were 10 polls plus my own ratings.

The “margin miss” is how far off of the final margin the poll was. The “absolute miss” is how far off the poll was from the final percentages.

Pollster Dates Margin Miss Absolute Miss
Rasmussen 10/24 R+0.4% 1.6%
PPP 11/2 – 11/3 O+0.6% 0.6%
Philadelphia Inquirer 10/23 – 10/25 O+0.6% 6.6%
Electoral-vote.us 11/6 R+1.3% 4.1%
Angus Reid 11/2 – 11/4 R+1.4% 1.4%
Franklin & Marshall College 10/23 – 10/28 R+1.4% 4.6%
Gravis Marketing 11/4 R+2.4% 3.6%
Muhlenberg College 11/1 – 11/3 R+2.4% 3.6%
Pulse Opinion Research 10/30 R+2.4% 3.6%
YouGov 11/31 – 11/3 O+2.6% 2.6%
Susquehanna 10/19 – 10/31 R+5.4% 5.4%

How did the Polls do: North Carolina

This is the ninth in a series of blog posts that will review how pollsters did on a state-by-state basis among the 10 closest battleground states, how they did on the national popular vote, and how they did overall as pollsters.

Today we look at the only swing state that Obama lost: North Carolina

This review looks at the last poll conducted by each pollster within roughly the final two weeks of the campaign (polls that were in the field on October 20th or later). For North Carolina, there were 9 polls plus my own ratings.

The “margin miss” is how far off of the final margin the poll was. The “absolute miss” is how far off the poll was from the final percentages.

Pollster Dates Margin Miss Absolute Miss
YouGov 10/31 – 11/3 0.0% 2.8%
Electoral-vote.us 11/6 R+0.4% 2.8%
National Research 10/20 – 10/21 O+1.0% 3.8%
High Point University 10/22 – 10/30 O+1.0% 7.8%
PPP 11/3 – 11/4 O+1.8% 1.8%
Gravis Marketing 11/4 R+2.0% 2.8%
Elon University 10/21 – 10/26 O+2.1% 8.1%
SurveyUSA 10/26 – 10/29 R+3.0% 3.8%
Rasmussen 10/25 R+4.0% 4.0%
Grove Insights 10/23 – 10/24 O+5.0% 7.8%