Way Early 2014 Senate Scores

Since I won’t even be officially collecting polls for the 2014 Senate races until 2014 – so 10 more months – I thought I would provide what I think are generally the scores for all the Senate seats that are going to be up in 2014. This right now is based on who is running, some extremely early polling, and of course the state that is involved. So without further ado, here are my way early 2014 Senate scores:

Toss Up

  • Georgia
  • Louisiana
  • South Dakota

Leans Democratic

  • Alaska
  • Arkansas
  • Colorado
  • Hawaii
  • Illinois
  • Iowa
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Montana
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • North Carolina

Leans Republican

  • Kentucky
  • Maine
  • West Virginia

Safe Democratic

  • Delaware
  • Massachusetts
  • New Mexico
  • Oregon
  • Rhode Island
  • Virginia

Safe Republican

  • Alabama
  • Idaho
  • Kansas
  • Mississippi
  • Nebraska
  • Oklahoma
  • South Carolina 1
  • South Carolina 2
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Wyoming

Notes

The following are notes about these ratings solely based on who has – or hasn’t – declared to run yet

  • Iowa: with Steve King almost certainly going to be the Republican nominee, I moved this state from toss-up to lean Dem from my original ratings I made about a week ago on twitter
  • Maine: “lean Republican” is pretty much an average of possible scenarios in that state. If Susan Collins decides to run again and survives any primary attempt, Maine would be Safe Republican. If either Susan Collins declines to run or she loses in a primary, Maine would switch to Toss Up or Lean Democratic
  • Michigan: If Carl Levin decides to run for another term, Michigan would move to Safe Democratic
  • South Dakota: If Tim Johnson declines to run for another term, South Dakota would move to Lean Republican

Final Electoral College Projections

And here we are: the final electoral college projections. It’s been an interesting seven months tracking polls and we’re finally here at the end, technically on election day, with some people in New Hampshire having already cast their votes.

There will be two final projections: the first is based straight off the average and the other is a modified 2-to-1 scenario. In that scenario, I take the number of unallocated voters – that is – voters that don’t say they are voting for Obama or Romney. I then subtract 1% from that total to account for third party voting. I then split up the remaining vote 2/3 for Romney and 1/3 for Obama in accordance to the so-called “incumbent rule.”

Before I get to each state projections, here are the electoral vote projections for each of the two projections I am doing:

Straight Average Projection:

Obama: 303, Romney: 235

Adjusted 2-to-1 Scenario:

Obama: 303, Romney: 235

As it happens, both scenarios actually give the same electoral vote count, albeit the margins in some of the states are closer in the second scenario.

*states with an asterisk have had no 2012 polls conducted  so projections are based off of 2008 results

#One of Maine and Nebraska’s electoral votes have been split out and projected on their own.

The following are “lean” states, which are states that are under 5% in both projections:

Lean Obama (87 Electoral Votes)

State Average Margin 2-to-1 Margin EVs
Colorado O+1.9% O+0.6% 9
Iowa O+2.6% O+1.1% 6
Maine-CD2 O+4% O+3.3% 1
Nevada O+3.6% O+2.6% 6
New Hampshire O+2.5% O+1.4% 4
Ohio O+2.6% O+1.4% 18
Pennsylvania O+4.1% O+2.6% 20
Virginia O+1.2% O+0.04% 13
Wisconsin O+4.2% O+3.1% 10

Lean Romney (44 Electoral Votes)

State Average Margin 2-to-1 Margin EVs
Florida R+0.8% R+1.6% 29
North Carolina R+2.4% R+3.4% 15

Next are “weak” states, which are states that are at or over 5% in at least one of the two projections but under 10% in both projections:

Weak Obama (38 Electoral Votes)

State Average Margin 2-to-1 Margin EVs
Michigan O+5.7% O+4.4% 16
Minnesota O+6.7% O+5.1% 10
New Mexico O+8.3% O+5.8% 5
Oregon O+6.1% O+3.7% 7

Weak Romney (40 Electoral Votes)

State Average Margin 2-to-1 Margin EVs
Arizona R+6.6% R+7.4% 11
Georgia R+7.4% R+8.2% 16
Montana R+8.6% R+9.8% 3
Nebraska-CD2 R+2.5% R+5% 1
South Carolina* R+9% R+9% 9

Finally, these are “strong” states, or states where a candidate leads by 10% or more in at least one of the projections:

Strong Obama (178 Electoral Votes)

State Average Margin 2-to-1 Margin EVs
California O+17.4% O+14.9% 55
Connecticut O+11.7% O+10.2% 7
Delaware* O+25% O+25% 3
District of Columbia O+80% O+79% 3
Hawaii O+27.5% O+26% 4
Illinois O+16.3% O+15.4% 20
Maine O+10.5% O+8.7% 3#
Maryland O+20.9% O+18.8% 10
Massachusetts O+18.6% O+17.3% 11
New Jersey O+12.1% O+9.8% 14
New York O+26.3% O+24.9% 29
Rhode Island O+21.9% O+18.1% 4
Vermont O+36.9% O+32.9% 3
Washington O+13.1% O+11.7% 12

Strong Romney (151 Electoral Votes)

State Average Margin 2-to-1 Margin EVs
Alabama* R+21% R+21% 9
Alaska* R+21% R+21.7% 3
Arkansas R+26.4% R+29.7% 6
Idaho R+36% R+39.1% 4
Indiana R+12.5% R+13.9% 11
Kansas R+20% R+22.4% 6
Kentucky R+14% R+16.4% 8
Louisiana R+18.7% R+21% 8
Mississippi* R+13% R+13% 6
Missouri R+8.9% R+10% 10
Nebraska R+16.3% R+17.6% 4#
North Dakota R+16.3% R+18.3% 3
Oklahoma R+29% R+33.1% 7
South Dakota R+10.1% R+12.1% 3
Tennessee R+24.9% R+33.1% 9
Texas R+16.2% R+17.8% 38
Utah R+44.5% R+46.1% 6
West Virginia R+14% R+17.1% 5
Wyoming* R+32% R+32.3% 3

November 5: State of the Race

Welcome to the final State of the Race report of the 2012 election. In this edition we will compare what the race for president looks like compared to last Monday, October 29th.

I’ll evaluate the race using five different metrics, with a slight change to one:

  • Current state of the race with TCtC states
  • Current state of the race with leaners
  • Obama EV total in states where he has 50% in the average
  • Obama EV total in states where he has 48% in the average
  • Electoral Vote total assuming a 2:1 undecided swing to Romney

State of the Race: Electoral Count including Too Close to Call

Obama: 217 (-20)
Romney: 191 (NC)
TCtC: 130 (+20)

The drop this week is Pennsylvania dropping down to “Too Close to Call” thanks to a series of polls coming in showing around a 3% Obama lead or so in the state. With a 5% screen, I’m not entirely sure how useful this metric is the day before the election, but that’s what I decided to use way back in April, so here it is.

State of the Race: Electoral Count including leaners

Obama: 303 (NC)
Romney: 235 (NC)

Once again, no change in the count without leaners. The only state within 1% at this moment is Florida, which Romney leads by 0.8% as of this moment.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming Obama needs 50% in the average

Romney: 318 (-16)
Obama: 220 (+16)

This is probably the most unrealistic metric in this report, but I like having it to cover all my bases. Obama once again gains some ground, gaining 26 electoral votes over the past two weeks. However, if undecided voters all go to Romney 100% (which is highly unlikely, especially given current polling trends), then Romney would win convincingly.

Once again Obama drops in the metric showing how many states he has 50% in the average in. I’m not entirely sure what the changes were in this count, but Obama improves by 10 electoral votes from last week. This seems like it would be a fairly unrealistic scenario, but we’ll see.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming Obama needs 48% in the average and leads

Obama: 303 (+16)
Romney: 235 (-16)

One big sign of Obama’s recovery is that he’s back over 300 electoral votes in states where he has 48% support.That’s Obama’s highest number since October 8th, which is effectively the last report that wasn’t significantly affected by polling after the first debate yet.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming undecideds break 2-to-1 toward Romney

Obama: 290 (+9)
Romney: 248 (-9)

Once again, this is the best number for Obama in this scenario since October 8th.

In this scenario, Romney wins Virginia by 0.3%, Florida by 2%, and North Carolina by 3.8%

Meanwhile, Obama would win Colorado by 0.2%, Iowa by 0.8%, Ohio by 1%, New Hampshire by 1.1%, Pennsylvania by 2.2%, and Wisconsin by 2.8%.

Four weeks ago, Romney needed an 88-12 split in undecideds to win. Three weeks ago that dropped to 80-20. Two weeks ago that dropped to only 69-31. Last week that jumped just slightly to a 71-29 split, and this week it went back up to near the October 15th level of 79-21.

October 29: State of the Race

Welcome to the October 29th state of the race, the next to last status before the end of the election. In this edition we will compare what the race for president looks like compared to last Monday, October 22nd. For the most part, the race definitely seems to have stabilized once again with a very narrow Obama advantage.

I’ll evaluate the race using five different metrics, with a slight change to one:

  • Current state of the race with TCtC states
  • Current state of the race with leaners
  • Obama EV total in states where he has 50% in the average
  • Obama EV total in states where he has 48% in the average
  • Electoral Vote total assuming a 2:1 undecided swing to Romney

State of the Race: Electoral Count including Too Close to Call

Obama: 237 (NC)
Romney: 191 (+11)
TCtC: 110 (-11)

Obama finally stopped dropping in this count, leveling of at 237 electoral votes for now. Romney gained back Arizona, which he probably really shouldn’t have lot in the first place.

State of the Race: Electoral Count including leaners

Obama: 303 (NC)
Romney: 235 (NC)

There is no change in the count, and little change in how close states are flipping. Both Colorado and Florida still have margins of under 1% and are the closest states for Obama and Romney respectively.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming Obama needs 50% in the average

Romney: 334 (-10)
Obama: 204 (+10)

Once again Obama drops in the metric showing how many states he has 50% in the average in. I’m not entirely sure what the changes were in this count, but Obama improves by 10 electoral votes from last week. This seems like it would be a fairly unrealistic scenario, but we’ll see.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming Obama needs 48% in the average and leads

Obama: 287 (-7)
Romney: 251 (+7)

This week, Oregon slipped under the 48% mark, though it’s sitting at 47.9% (along with Colorado and Florida). However, Obama’s margin in Oregon is about 6% right now, so he’s probably not in as bad of shape there as that percentage suggests.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming undecideds break 2-to-1 toward Romney

Obama: 281 (NC)
Romney: 257 (NC)

For the second straight week, there is no change in this count, which is a good sign for Obama that things have leveled out.

In this scenario, Romney would still win Virginia by 0.4% (vs. 0.5% last week), Colorado by 0.9% (vs. 1.4% last week), and Florida by 1.9% (vs. 2.5% last week). Obama would win Ohio by 0.4% (vs. 0.2% last week), Iowa by 0.9% (vs. 0.8% last week), Nevada by 1.8% (vs. 1.3% last week), New Hampshire by 0.8% (vs. 1.5% last week), and Wisconsin by 2.2% (vs. 2.7% last week).

Three weeks ago, Romney needed an 88-12 split in undecideds to win. Two weeks ago that dropped to 80-20. Last week that dropped to only 69-31. This week that jumped just slightly to a 71-29 split.

October 22: State of the Race

Welcome to the October 22th state of the race. In this edition we will compare what the race for president looks like compared to last Monday, October 15th. This status report shows that the second debate may have slowed Romney’s momentum, but didn’t fully stop it.

I’ll evaluate the race using five different metrics, with a slight change to one:

  • Current state of the race with TCtC states
  • Current state of the race with leaners
  • Obama EV total in states where he has 50% in the average
  • Obama EV total in states where he has 48% in the average
  • Electoral Vote total assuming a 2:1 undecided swing to Romney

State of the Race: Electoral Count including Too Close to Call

Obama: 237 (-4)
Romney: 180 (+10)
TCtC: 121 (-6)

Obama again drops, this time for losing New Hampshire. He’s now down to 237 electoral votes on the map. Romney gains Missouri back, putting him at 180. This isn’t Obama’s low point that he was at in late August and early September, and I don’t think he’ll match it, but this is not the best time for Obama to be bottoming out in any of these counts.

State of the Race: Electoral Count including leaners

Obama: 303 (NC)
Romney: 235 (NC)

No change on this count for now, though Obama is perilously close to losing Colorado right now, which would put him under 300. Romney’s position has strengthened a little in Florida, which he picked up last week.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming Obama needs 50% in the average

Romney: 344 (+17)
Obama: 194 (-17)

Once again Obama drops in the metric showing how many states he has 50% in the average in. I think the moves here were Wisconsin going over 50% again and Pennsylvania and Oregon dropping under 50%, for a net of minus 17. Three weeks or so ago, Obama was nearing his needed 270 on this metric. No longer.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming Obama needs 48% in the average and leads

Obama: 294 (NC)
Romney: 244 (NC)

Luckily for Obama, while some states slipped to under 50%, no new states slipped under 48% in the past week, though none went back over it either. This is perhaps a sign that at least Obama has mostly stopped falling, though Romney could still be gaining by picking up previously undecided voters.

State of the Race: Electoral Count assuming undecideds break 2-to-1 toward Romney

Obama: 281 (NC)
Romney: 257 (NC)

Perhaps another sign that things may be starting to level out is that Obama lost no more states in the 2-to-1 scenario, though Ohio is currently the next state to go.

Right now, Romney wins Virginia by 0.5%, Colorado by 1.4%, and Florida by 2.5%. Meanwhile, Obama wins Ohio by 0.2%, Iowa by 0.8%, Nevada by 1.3%, New Hampshire by 1.5%, and Wisconsin by 2.7%

Two weeks ago, Romney needed an 88-12 split in undecideds to win. Last week that dropped to 80-20. This week that drops to only 69-31. If Romney gains any more ground, it will be likely that he will be leading the 2-to-1 metric come next Monday.